2020 Olympics down to three:  You probably saw the news by now that the International Olympic Committee has narrowed its candidates to host the 2020 Summer Olympic Games to three:  Tokyo, Madrid and Istanbul.

Doha, Qatar, and Baku, Azerbaijan are out.

The final selection will occur on Sept. 7, 2013 — more than a year from now.

Given the local interest in Tokyo, and my background with the Olympics, this blog will try to keep track of developments.  For now, at least, we can inspect the latest twists in the story and, of course, highlight the logos. Click on the graphics for better views of the logos.

A few links:

  • This story from the Associated Press is the most informative and well-researched I’ve found so far on the IOC’s decision. The story ran in Business Week. I also saw it on the Sports Illustrated website.
  • In Japan, the Yomiuri Shimbun, the largest circulation daily newspaper in the world, offered this follow-up story on what Japan must do to win the bid. For starters, it needs to generate a lot of electricity now that all of the country’s nuclear-powered plants have been taken offline as a safety response after last year’s quake and tsunami.The IOC’s vetting process weighs the reliability of the power supply. 
  • Winning the nod to host an Olympics Games requires exhaustive research and effort. No surprise that cities contract for massive public relations activities.   Tokyo has signed a deal with Weber Shandwick.  Here is the story.
  • For the story of Tokyo’s logo featuring a cherry blossom, see this story in Tokyo Weekender.
  • Madrid’s new logo, meanwhile, has drawn much local criticism, partly because organizers rounded the top shapes and lopped off the bottom of the original version, which was supposed to show “M20.”  Now critics say it looks more like “20020.”  Here’s the story from a British paper, The Telegraph.

I’ve added the before-and-after graphics of Madrid’s logo. I like the text choices in the newer version, but I’ll bet the bottom of the older version returns.

As for Istanbul, I couldn’t find a larger logo than a stylized city name on its website.  I suppose a logo will arrive with a great splash sometime soon.

I also included the rather logo from London 2012 and Rio de Janeiro’s clever design of fluid, celebrating dancers — no doubt the samba — for 2016. Far superior.

If you want to review the official sites of the three cities, click on them here:  Tokyo, Madrid, Istanbul. You can tell quickly that these sites are conforming to the formatting requirements of the IOC.  But we’ll see far more glorious, interactive sites soon.  We always do.

I admit to obvious interests in seeing Tokyo succeed, but my aim is to cover the developments as an open analyst, without tilting too favorably toward Tokyo.I’d be happy to cover or watch the games at any of three cities.

More on all this later.

More on Futenma: Thoughts from a think tank

Here is a new article arguing that local unhappiness over the presence of U.S. military bases on Okinawa will not be changed much by the latest round of agreements to shift some Marines off the island.

The piece comes from two researchers with The Rand Corporation, a well-known non-partisan think tank with its headquarters in Santa Monica, Calif., but other offices around the world.  Rand looks at many public policy questions, certainly including those involving U.S. military/defense questions.

Labeled as commentary, this piece by Stacie L. Pettyjohn and Alan J. Vick says the new decision to shift 8,000-9,000 Marines from the Futenma helicopter base to other bases in the Asia-Pacific region, including Guam and Hawaii, won’t have as much impact as some might hope. 

As mentioned earlier in this blog (scroll down), the deal does not include a decision on where to relocate the base. The Rand authors offer an interpretation that takes the calculus a step further: They say there are structural conditions that add difficulties to finding a successful solution, even by implication if the solution is to move the base off the island. 

They reason that the removal of the Marines from Futenma, which is probably the least-liked base here on the island, will not satisfy the deeper dissatisfaction with the American military presence in general. 

Their other point is perhaps more the reason for the article.  They say that the manner in which the Japanese national government compensates Okinawa for tolerating the bases — through large financial subsidies and inflated rents to the Futenma landowners for use of the base property — gives the island’s leaders a reason to maintain a sort of simmering hostility toward the bases. 

In other words, being outraged about the base, and about the military presence overalll, is rather a wise economic stance.

The local leaders (in capital city Naha) need to continue to be upset about the bases so they can continue to insist on compensatory funds.  If Japan and the United States found acceptable solutions, goes the logic, these Okinawan interests would lose this flow of funding.

“As long as there is a US military presence on Okinawa, and as long as Tokyo buys the acquiescence of the local population, Naha is likely to continue to object to American bases.

I’ve heard this reasoning before.  It’s the kind of point that think-tank analysts can make more appropriately than government players, who have to worry a bit more about questioning the sincerity of others at the bargaining table. Thus, it’s a point that doesn’t emerge in the popular media a lot.  It is at times offered by American officials who sometimes wonder if any solution is possible.  According to this logic, political opposition is virtually a necessary condition as long as the approach in Tokyo remains the same. 

That said, other reasons also apply. Not all are built on political expediency. Having lived under a route that the helicopters often take, and having seen the contrasts in the conditions on bases and in surrounding neighborhoods, I can appreciate why folks here sometimes grow impatient with life beside visiting military forces. 

Sure, the helicopters and all other military operations provide for stability in the region. And if a base were moved off the island, the economic shock to locals would be rough. But some of the opposition here is less of a financial or political calculation and more of a weariness, more of a feeling that everyone is not getting equal treatment.

We can’t leave that out of the thinking, either.

Not the moon:  We saw the moon on the sun this morning in Okinawa, a solar eclipse.  Had the usual clouds blocking much of the view, but the sun burned through a few times.  Misako shot this from our balcony. The tide is high today here, too, with these celestial bodies lined up above.  For much more, including maps of the route of the eclipse, see Eclipser.  And here is another site about the eclipse in Japan. Lots of interest here because, according to media reports, this is the first time in 932 years that people all over Japan could see a solar eclipse, clouds willing.  (People in certain regions could see an eclipse, but not entire country.) TV networks have dedicated their morning programming to the phenomenon.  The sun looked so moonlike here, it reminded me of the old Ricky Nelson song, It’s Late. “Look up.  Is that the moon we see?  Can’t be. Looks like the sun to me.” Lyrics by Dorsey Burnette. No worries if you missed this one.  Another full (or annular) solar blockage will be coming right up, in June 2030 around here.  Just eat healthy. View high resolution

Not the moon:  We saw the moon on the sun this morning in Okinawa, a solar eclipse. 

Had the usual clouds blocking much of the view, but the sun burned through a few times.  Misako shot this from our balcony.

The tide is high today here, too, with these celestial bodies lined up above. 

For much more, including maps of the route of the eclipse, see Eclipser.  And here is another site about the eclipse in Japan. Lots of interest here because, according to media reports, this is the first time in 932 years that people all over Japan could see a solar eclipse, clouds willing.  (People in certain regions could see an eclipse, but not entire country.) TV networks have dedicated their morning programming to the phenomenon. 

The sun looked so moonlike here, it reminded me of the old Ricky Nelson song, It’s Late.

“Look up.  Is that the moon we see?  Can’t be. Looks like the sun to me.”

Lyrics by Dorsey Burnette.

No worries if you missed this one.  Another full (or annular) solar blockage will be coming right up, in June 2030 around here.  Just eat healthy.

Developing peace: Where to stick a helicopter base

With the 40th anniversary of the reversion of Okinawa to Japan coming up Tuesday, we’ve seen much related activity and lately on the island. 

That includes a new poll on political opinion about the U.S. military presence here, another call for other parts of Japan to relieve Okinawa’s longtime task as home of many U.S. military bases, and organized protest marches to remind the powerful people in Tokyo and Washington, D.C., that they shouldn’t feel comfy about leaving the Marine Corps’ Futenma helicopter base where it is.

Which is to say, in landlocked Futenma, where every helicopter in the air hovers over a lot of homes, schools and people.

Back in the late 1990s, when I was a bureau chief for Pacific Stars & Stripes, we were reporting on initiatives to relocate the base.  Despite much effort and strategy, and a lot more protests, nothing much changed — until the past few months.

Lately, the political stars have finally lined up, and any one initiative seems to ensure that more moves will follow. The United States and Japan have agreed to shift 8,000 or more Marines to bases in Guam and Hawaii and to rotate some through training in Northern Australia and the Philippines.

This means the number of Marines on Okinawa ought to decline from around 18,000 to 10,000. It removes some of the pressure to do something.  But by itself, the troop shift does not change the location of the helicopter base. This is a point the anti-base leaders here have been eager to make.  In fact, their worry is that the reduction in troops may reduce the momentum to vacate the Futenma base.

We’re starting to see an agreement taking shape to move the remaining activities from Futenma to the larger Kadena Air Force Base.  To make room, the Air Force might then relocate some of its operations to other bases in South Korea or Mainland Japan. 

A proposal like this is complicated, with one set of implications emerging from the next.  The Air Force won’t be too keen.  As military bases go, Kadena is a jewel.  And as this Stripes piece reports, the people who live near Kadena are already objecting.

Another recent story from The Japan Times offers an historical look along with a claim that, even once Futenma is restored to Okinawa, a history of toxic chemical dumping there will prevent use until after an expensive clean up. Perhaps. But people live and work there now, for better or worse.  And the noise and safety issues with helicopters would at least be removed.  

The Futenma-to-Kadena proposal is politically possible; the U.S. Senate Armed Forces Committee, which has a lot to say about funding, probably would back this option because it’s relatively affordable compared with building an entirely new helicopter base.  The Tokyo government will appreciate an ‘out’ to a wildly unpopular plan to rebuild the helicopter base farther north on the island.

I’d think that this would be an acceptable shift to a majority in Okinawa, at least as a preliminary move until everyone decides how much they need choppers and ground troops around in case tensions grow.  At issue: The extent to which removing some military presence will invite or reduce aggression in the region.

To some influence leaders here, including local newspapers, the solution should be all or nothing. Mostly all.  The U.S. military should vacate.  Peace should break out in the region. The economy should finally prosper.  China should become a more trusted friend as it was way back before colonial powers intervened.  Until then, any evidence of change tends to be interpreted cynically.  Here’s an example in The Ryukyu Shimpo.

But ejecting the American bases undercuts the basis of the U.S.-Japan security arrangement, as Jennifer Lind, a Dartmouth associate professor, points out in this Q & A just published by the National Bureau of Asian Research. Says Lind:

“The United States provides protection and Japan provides bases. If Japan grows less willing over time to provide bases, Americans will quite rightly start asking themselves, what exactly does Japan contribute to this arrangement?”

Fascinating to observe all this as an icy stalemate begins to thaw.  I’ll be watching to see if the dialogue moves beyond ideology and rhetoric — the stuff we say to please our constituents — and into practical discussions about the most prudent moves to make people’s lives better in Okinawa and Japan and throughout the region.

At the pace that these affairs move, we have lots of time to talk.

Reading quiz:  What word on the sign in this cool cafe is written in English?  And what do you think this says about the use of foreign words in Okinawa? Actually, there are two words, right? Can’t overlook the ‘or.’  That next circled word (ワィン) means ‘wine.’  　 Nice handwriting.  I love the hand-made signs here.  Cheers to that. View high resolution

Reading quiz:  What word on the sign in this cool cafe is written in English?  And what do you think this says about the use of foreign words in Okinawa?

Actually, there are two words, right? Can’t overlook the ‘or.’  That next circled word (ワィン) means ‘wine.’  　

Nice handwriting.  I love the hand-made signs here.  Cheers to that.

Abide with the tide:  With the tide out and the rain absent for a change, we stepped out on the well-walked reef area along the local coastline to see the sea.

Next time, we might opt for better-gripping footwear than flip-flops, but we slid over the stony surfaces well enough to avoid the living corals and to enjoy close-up views of tide pools and reef life. Misako discovered everything from half-hidden crabs to patterned shells with intact tenants.  We watched dozens of the bright blue damselfish scooting through the currents.

The normal on-reef activity around here is not studying sea life so much as angling to eat it.  We were outnumbered by those with long poles to fish out a little something for dinner. 

The division of leisure:  This is the interlude in springtime Japan called Golden Week when folks usually earn a few days off work and families aim for some shared if scripted fun.  We strolled down to Nishihara Beach, an impressive human-constructed swimming and playing area, to seek some poignant scenes.

The water was crowded and shallow in the one spot where swimming was allowed. Too shallow actually to swim.  The photo doesn’t reveal this, but at least three-quarters of the beach area was off-limits, even for dipping a toe into the water.  And it’s always off-limits.  But kids had much else to hold their fascinations, from rows of coin-fed toy dispensers to large dishes of shaved-ice delights. 

You can notice in the photo that lifeguards have strung nets around the swimming area to protect people from any encroaching threats, such as jellyfish.  This can be reassuring.  Still, there is some logic that yet evades me, such as why on one of the sunniest, busiest days of the outdoor season, so much of the beach area was closed. Maybe they need more nets.

Or why, for instance, officials warn people not to snorkel in open waters because of the danger but also don’t allow snorkeling inside the nets, even on days when no one else is swimming. Liability is a possibility.  But why waste all of that inviting sand on a spacious beach if you don’t want people to use it?

My best guess at an answer: Playing in the water is supposed to be an activity for kids, and kids don’t need space, nor should they be snorkeling.  Snorkelers, who are mostly non-local, should go pay a lot of money to tour operators to boost the local economy, and that satisfies the business people who influence government policies.

Click here for a letter to the editor of the Japan Times from an unhappy tourist in Okinawa on exactly this subject. I just found it after writing this item.  Guess I’m not the only one questioning this policy. I agree with his point that forcing visitors to pay for snorkeling tours is eventually going to hurt, not help, the tourist economy.

The local thinking goes like this:  Once people reach, say, age 16, they really shouldn’t want to swim anymore, anyway — except eventually to watch their kids once they’re parents.  Everyone else should act like adults and get the portable barbecue warmed up for cooking.  The division of labor, and leisure, is well prescribed here. 

Makes me wonder what people who run beaches here think when they see video of middle-aged folks surfing or snorkeling in Hawaii.  Must think them shameful renegades. Or that Hawaii must be awfully chaotic. 

Back to work:  With pink banners billowing in the constant breeze, classes have begun in the new school year here at Ryukyu Daigaku. The year started on April 1.  This is the spring-summer semester because it runs into August.

The campus is well-clipped this season in the sub-tropics. It was frankly a lot wilder and weedier when we arrived late last summer. But I understand the cycle now.  We came in what might be deemed the low season for maintenance because it was the suffocatingly hot-and-steamy season for weather. 

I’m greeting about 94 new students these days. They seem wonderful, hopeful and slightly perplexed by what I will expect them to do, including writing essays in English.  So far, I have persuaded them to pose for photos holding name cards so I can study names and faces. 

I’d show some shots here. Some of the handmade cards are pretty cool, even cute. But I’d better ask first. Kind of unfair to send images of unsuspecting students around the world before I know Mari from Mariko, Ayano from Ayami, and Shohei from Shoya.

I have high hopes for them all. In another three months, we may all be Facebook friends.

That sounds flippant, but I mean it. Here is the crisis: How does a visiting Fulbrighter hold onto the connections he is starting to make with roomfuls of young people who know him only to the degree they are willing to utter sentences in their second language?

Facebook isn’t the worst option. We all know like. And we usually like photos.

And I’d kind of like to watch them grow up.  But I’ll ask first.

By the way, the student under the umbrella is striding past the window in my office. That’s also our building at the end of the lineup of cars and scooters.

Prettiest Kyoto sunset: The light hitting at a soft diagonal illuminated Misako’s smile.  She was in a good mood anyway, strolling on a snowy day in Kyoto with her family.  View high resolution

Prettiest Kyoto sunset: The light hitting at a soft diagonal illuminated Misako’s smile.  She was in a good mood anyway, strolling on a snowy day in Kyoto with her family. 

A huge highlight:  One of the best experiences so far of our Year of the Fulbright was meeting in Kyoto with members of Misako’s family. 

The reunion grew naturally.  We first convinced her folks to join us in the Kansai area during our mainland tour.  Then more family members grew interested. We ended with a happy group of nine inhaling the spiritual goodness in some of Japan’s most sacred places.

It was important.  I’ll leave it at that.  And I’ll mention that the stops for prayers at the temples were full of feeling and meaning, with many loved ones to be remembered and looked after in the deepest human way.

That’s the group on top.  Misako’s father, Tsuguo, admired a fabled Kyoto road scene at left. At bottom are four sisters:  Misako’s mother Miyoko, Yuko, Kayoko, and Rumiko.

Rumiko’s husband Mikio who helped with our tour plans, is at far right in the top photo, and Kevin is tucked in there somewhere, stuck with a bunch of adults (who he’ll miss in a big way once we’re gone).

Click on photos for larger and sharper images.

All about legs:  This is on my Facebook, too.  The boyfriend playfully threw his hip into his girlfriend just as I framed this shot.  Made for a fun moment, with all the focus on the limbs we walk on. Note the folks in the background, also focused on walking. View high resolution

All about legs:  This is on my Facebook, too.  The boyfriend playfully threw his hip into his girlfriend just as I framed this shot.  Made for a fun moment, with all the focus on the limbs we walk on. Note the folks in the background, also focused on walking.

[Flash 10 is required to watch video]

On the way home:  Here is a video of a few people we saw while waiting in the downtown Osaka Hankyu train station.  This was at the end of the work day as we waited to catch up with the Sato family, our old friends from Chapel Hill.

I shot several minutes of this, caught up in the flow of folks toward the waiting trains.  The commute, of course, lasted for a couple of hours.  So just take what you see here and multiply the people by about 30,000.